2009 Forecast

First of all, let's deal with a Senate lesson for Andy, which is something that he seems to have gotten his shorts in a knot over. Governments appoint Senators to fill vacancies which occur when they die of old age, or reach age 75 (which right now doesn't seem so old, so I take the first part back). Stephen Harper was hoping to put the Senate out of its misery, so he didn't appoint any Senators in his first three years in office; however, the other parties, and seven of the provinces would not agree to abolish the Senate or to make it accountable to the electorate. As a result, the Liberals in the Senate became an overwhelming majority and delayed any real progress the government was trying to make. Then came the unholy coalition, and Stephen realized that if he didn't repopulate the Senate with people who were in agreement with his goals, then one of the first steps of the coalition would be to staff it with theirs - and the left wing dominance of the Senate would be permanent. One of my worst moments was when the coalition was announced and I saw a media interview of Elizabeth May plumping for a Senate seat! God help us all. Now for the predictions; 1. ELECTION

• Ignatieff doesn't want an election. He knows that the Liberal Party can't afford it, doesn't have a coherent policy, and has lost a lot of the grass roots needed to recover power.
• The coalition is dead.
• Harper does want an election, because his popularity rose (perhaps temporarily) when the coalition was created, but I pray that he doesn't shoot himself in the foot again. He will do whatever he can to embarrass the Liberals, but he is up against a tougher opponent now than he had in the hapless Dion.
• By 2010, Harper will be able to appoint enough additional Senators to have a majority in the Senate. So, my prediction is for an election in 2010, rather than 2009.

2. THE BIG THREE

There is no "Big Three". There are three traditional North American car producers who are well into the process of irrelevance. Just a hollow shell, much like the whole of the U.S.A. They'll prove incapable of fixing the things that brought them to this point: arrogant management, a greedy union, poor design and focus, and counterproductive work habits that add to costs and hurt quality. Ford and GM will survive for the short term, Chrysler will likely be taken over and "rationalized" by someone else. GM will not be profitable in the next three years and their debt will not be repaid (or, if any of it is, it will be at the expense of their legacy costs).

3. OIL PRICE

Oil will be at $65 per barrel. Not because of any improvement in the economy, but because of unrest in the Middle East.

4. 2009'S MAIN EVENT

Al Quaeda will be successful in staging another 9/11 or Mumbai event in 2009, and as this is processed into isolationism by the world's politicians, it will make the world's economy fall further into the abyss.

Other predictions:

• The economy will stay in the tank for all of 2009. It will seem worse a year from now.
• Obama has a 50% chance of seeing the next New Year.
• Someone in Hollywood will take their clothes off in public and this will eclipse all other world events.
• Sometime - it may take a few years - the world's financiers (China, India, etc.) will realize that the USA has absolutely no chance of ever paying their debts, which will have increased by 3 trillion dollars in 2009 alone, and they will shut off the money spigots. If you think we have economic trouble now, this will be our real North American Armageddon!

PEACE BROTHER!