Happy New Year!
It’s December 31st and I’m ready to make my predictions for the start up of parliament. But first I have to ask if you Harper supporters aren’t just a bit sheepish about the spate of Senate and many other patronage appointments made over the holidays?
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose n’est pas?
(The more things change the more they stay the same, eh?)
This classic cliché is apropos of recent events and it is an acknowledgement by me that past Governments, both Liberal and Conservative have always acted like this. Cronyism is after all at the heart of all politics and let’s face it; if you don’t reward your gang, how do you get elected? I can even agree that it was the Provincial Premiers and the Liberal dominated Senate’s stonewalling that made it impossible for Harper to move forward with Senate reform but . . . the optics are awful. This gang was to be above all this! Ignatieff wants a parliament that will operate with less hard-ball and by this I’m assuming he’s referring to the inappropriate use of the confidence motion by the Conservatives. I still think that there has to be a formal agreement on this point because, as I have previously noted, the coalition threat is only real in the short term. After only a few months the GG would not agree to let a coalition govern and that would give Harper the election he wants.
So my prediction then is as follows:
There will be a back room deal and it likely will be one that we won’t hear about for many years to come. The deal will guarantee that the Liberals will stand with the Conservatives on the throne speech and the new budget. The fact that these documents will be so goodie-laden would make it difficult for them to vote against either of them anyway. In return the Liberals will get a guarantee that the use of confidence motions be limited to future throne speeches, budgets and in the cases of national emergencies. Everybody saves face and no one cares about how apoplectic Jack and Gilles get. And we Canadians get a government that might actually work for us for a change. I just wish that I could also predict the bottom of the stock market slide.
Your predictions: (I’ve prepared my answers to these questions to be published later)
Now for all of you that wish to venture your best guess on the happenings of 2009, I offer you the following list of topical issue:
1. Will there be an election? What of the Coalition? These issues are obviously interlinked.
2. What of the big there? This is not a simple yes or no answer as there are many possible scenarios so you need to elaborate.
3. What will the price of a barrel of oil be on Dec. 1st 2009? I’ll skip the value of the Loonie since the price of oil and the value of our currency are tantamount to the same question.
4. And now the really tough one: your guess at the biggest news story of 2009.
Answers will be graded on a scale of one to ten as there’s lots of potential for partially right answers. I’ll be the judge and keep the record of predictions for publication on January 1st 2010. We did this exercise at the end of every year when I worked at Dofasco and it became a very popular chalenge.
AH
News about the Tobermory Trompers will be the main focus of this blog but not it's only one. I will include highlights from our Dofasco Golf Group as well as political updates that reflect my take on the run-up to the 2015 federal election. Your comments are most welcome as well as pictures and travel updates. Please address all comments to "Andy".
2 comments:
Hi Andy,
Your email is timely, I was just thinking about the New Year’s predictions we used to do in the office. So here goes.
Of course there will be an election, the real question is when. I think that you are right (that statement should get me a couple points on its own) the Liberals and Conservatives will agree on a number of issues and we shall have peace and government (notice I didn’t say “good government”) for a while. However, I think that as soon as one or more or a combination of the following scenarios is occurring, that Harper will look to go to the polls.
Scenario 1 – the economy begins to show signs of recovery, not a flash in the pan recovery, but sustained recovery.
Scenario 2 – the polls are showing that the people are having trouble distinguishing between the Liberals and the Conservatives on a number of issues, that is to say Harper won’t let blue become gray or get a tinge of red in it.
Scenario 3 – this is similar to scenario 2 but more direct, the Liberals become too demanding on the issues; I think that Michael can control them, but for how long.
The coalition is dead.
The big 3 will most certainly all be smaller, whether they reduce to only 2 or not is more the question. So far there has been very little said about the presence of the off-shore car manufacturers, they’re already here with new modern low cost facilities and work-force and their products are more aligned to the “green car” issue; so they should be out of the gate faster and in better shape than either of the big 3. The big 3 still have their legacy costs, their unions, their non-green car models, etc. and they haven’t shown any real tendency to do anything constructive or progressive about any of these issues. All they want is money!
Leases, well they all did this, but the big 3 really got into it so that about 60% of all new cars were leased, and who owned them after the leases ran out, the car manufacturers and the markets were flooded with good used cars that were under-valued and not selling because people were leasing new ones. I thought managers went to business school, obviously their business models didn’t have any long range analysis component.
I fail to understand how two major industries that are so dependent on each other (oil and cars) can operate in large measure against each other. The car makers build gas guzzlers and the oil companies up the price of gas, duh! The earths oil reserves are dwindling and the car makers build gas guzzlers; shouldn’t they be building gas misers and help to extend the oil reserves as far as they can. I guess the formula is make billions for a few years instead of making millions for a lot of years.
The bottom line for me is simply this, if the big 3 don’t make drastic changes to their business models, i.e. cut wages and benefits, build fuel efficient cars in one or two model choices, not 30, and stop spending money on lavish advertisements etc. then they will cease to exist and as Darwin stated the fittest will survive.
The price of oil on December 1st, 2009 will be in the $39 to $40 range. Two reasons; one – it will take longer than that for any positive changes in the economy to take affect, and two – if the car makers do get some intelligence and produce cars that don’t use much gas that will also keep consumption and the price down.
The obvious story would be some kind of attack on Obama, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one was made on Geo. W. Bush. But I really think that the middle east is going to explode, particularly if the U.S. pulls out of Iran and focuses more on its own problems than those of others. This will allow the sectarian issues to truly show themselves and the mess that follows won’t be pretty. Hmmm, maybe I’ll change my answer to item 3.
Dancer 18
Welcome Dancer 18! Someday you will have to tell me where that catchy handle comes from?
Thanks for you well organised thoughts - they will be entered into the 2009 contest.
AH
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