April 1st seems an appropriate time to make a political prediction and since I have been chastised for delaying my declaration until next week, here it is:
• I predict the Conservatives will win the largest number of seats but will still find themselves in a minority situation.
• I believe that overall they will lose seats and see their total number of elected members fall to 137 from the current number of 143.
• They will gain a couple of seats in Newfoundland but will be decimated in Quebec. (which actually speaks well for them)
• In battleground Ontario they will recover some of the seats lost in Quebec but won’t get the numbers that would be necessary to boost them to a majority. (women and immigrants have not been won over)
• They will of course sweep the west but the results in BC will write a very important chapter in this election. The final outcome will be far from certain until the votes from that province are tabulated.
• The Liberals will make gains largely at the expense of the NDP and will see their seat count increase to 88 from the current 76.
• I base this prediction on the fact that in 2008, led by the hapless Dion and his carbon tax, the Liberals still saw 76 members elected. The Conservatives should have completely decimated them! The fact that this didn’t happen indicates that this was the high water mark for a Conservative party led by Stephen Harper.
• Canadians are not by their nature Conservative but neither are they risk takers so, Harper’s spin on being the best fiscal managers will win him the day but not his holy grail of a majority government.
AH
2008 Election Results (Seat totals and Status by Party)
Party 2008 Election Status 2006 Election Seat Change
Conservative Party 143 seats Minority Government 124 seats + 19
Liberal Party 76 seats Official Opposition 103 seats - 27
Bloc Québécois 50 seats Opposition Party 51 seats - 01
New Democratic Party 37 seats Opposition Party 29 seats + 8
Independent 02 seats - 01 seat + 01
• I predict the Conservatives will win the largest number of seats but will still find themselves in a minority situation.
• I believe that overall they will lose seats and see their total number of elected members fall to 137 from the current number of 143.
• They will gain a couple of seats in Newfoundland but will be decimated in Quebec. (which actually speaks well for them)
• In battleground Ontario they will recover some of the seats lost in Quebec but won’t get the numbers that would be necessary to boost them to a majority. (women and immigrants have not been won over)
• They will of course sweep the west but the results in BC will write a very important chapter in this election. The final outcome will be far from certain until the votes from that province are tabulated.
• The Liberals will make gains largely at the expense of the NDP and will see their seat count increase to 88 from the current 76.
• I base this prediction on the fact that in 2008, led by the hapless Dion and his carbon tax, the Liberals still saw 76 members elected. The Conservatives should have completely decimated them! The fact that this didn’t happen indicates that this was the high water mark for a Conservative party led by Stephen Harper.
• Canadians are not by their nature Conservative but neither are they risk takers so, Harper’s spin on being the best fiscal managers will win him the day but not his holy grail of a majority government.
AH
2008 Election Results (Seat totals and Status by Party)
Party 2008 Election Status 2006 Election Seat Change
Conservative Party 143 seats Minority Government 124 seats + 19
Liberal Party 76 seats Official Opposition 103 seats - 27
Bloc Québécois 50 seats Opposition Party 51 seats - 01
New Democratic Party 37 seats Opposition Party 29 seats + 8
Independent 02 seats - 01 seat + 01
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