Wednesday, December 17, 2008

OK, now that I have the hang of this thing I'm inserting the replies that I got to my one innocuous observation on the prospect of a coalition government. This is pretty lengthy and I hope I haven't left out any of the responses - but I may have - sorry. First the message sent by me on November 29: (me in the red font) Hi guys: I guess it ain't over yet. I know that many of you are fed up with all this but you really owe it to yourself to read this excellent article by the Globe's Jeffrey Simpson. At the time of this writing (6:15 Saturday), John Baird had already announced that the Conservatives will drop their plan to cancel public subsidies for political party's. A dramatic turn-around from yesterday's position but maybe not enough now that the Genie's out of the bottle - we'll see. All of a sudden, normally boring Canadian politics is looking pretty interesting. I'm betting that the opposition will have to go ahead with their plan to form a new government or it will look like their concern really was all about the subsidy issue and nothing else. (And you guy's said Dion would never be PM - hah!) Love to hear your thoughts, Gary Then the message I sent on November 30: Hi Bud: To be truthful I share your concern about concessions that would have to be made if the Liberals were to form a coalition government. And I find it disgusting that petty party politics are driving this whole thing. John Baird (who made the Conservative concession announcement) personifies the school yard bully that finally gets his come-uppance when his weaker victim grabs a two by four and hits him in the mush. The cumulative effect of the Conservative bullying and humiliation of the opposition has pushed these guys over the brink. And as you so aptly note, Harper's stupidity lies at the route of the crisis. Should be an interesting week. I'm going to make another prediction: The Conservatives will re-vamp their Economic Update to include some dramatic moves to stimulate the economy. Then if the opposition still insists on going ahead with their own confidence motion, the Conservatives can argue that the Governor General has no sound rational to allow a coalition government to upset their minority government. This will spark a huge legal/constitutional debate and lead to more delay and inaction in addressing the issues we Canadians care about. Gary The first response was from my old boss and now hiking and golf buddy, Bud Craig: Hi Gary Unfortunately, his economic update ranks right up there in stupidity with his ill-thought cuts to culture, which cost him the majority that would have allowed him to do what he wanted. In both cases, a measly $30 million was at stake. His next risky move is to pin his hopes on the electors buying his view that Dion doesn’t deserve to be the Prime Minister. All the Liberals have to do is choose Iggy and give Dion the bum’s rush and that argument goes out the door too. I hate to think how much money it will cost the taxpayers for what the Liberals, on top of their own flagrant abuses, will have to promise to get Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe in their tent. I really fear for the economic future of Canada now, and my “hero” Harper is solely to blame. Be careful what you wish for Gary. You may get it, and be terribly sorry! Your disillusioned friend, Bud. Next was Graham Sharp another old boss of mine, (I had a lot of them) Hi Gary, Hope you are well and not over exciting yourself at the prospect of a change of government! As Bud says "be careful what you wish for!"Surely a new election can not be on the cards although if it was I could see the people really taking it out on the Libs more than they did the last time.At the same time, I just can not imagine a coalition between the Libs and NDP with the Bloc holding the balance and the country to ransom.Who would be PM, surely not Dion when his own party want him out. Perhaps that pompous little bastard Layton? Who would be Finance, Rae?Where does that thieving bully from Shewinigan fit in? Will he and Broadbent be pulling the strings behind the scenes?I just can not see a coalition firstly being formed and secondly lasting more than a few weeks. A political nightmare!Personally, I would not want to be any politician in power during these very challenging times because there is very little that they can do to make much difference.Things will just have to work themselves out as surely they will. No amount of "stimulus" will have any major effect other than sinking any country deeper into the mire.In the U.S.,personal greed, government corruption and warmongering and of course mismanagement on Wall Street have brought the rest of the world to this state of affairs.People insist on buying at the lowest price from Walmart and then have the gall to complain about job loss at home. You cannot have both.If GM cannot build cars that people want to buy and afford to run then why give them money to prolong the inevitable. Getting rid of the auto unions would be a good start.Stopping production for three months might help clear up the backlog of vehicles in the field. Declare the Hummer an endangered specie.This is very reminiscent of the US steel industry when after decades of prosperity in spite of bad management after WW 2 went in the tank, I do not recall much government intervention then but the industry survived in a limited form. Pittsburgh is still economically viable.I think that we are in the midst of another Industrial Revolution. The Luddites could not stop the first one and I do not believe government intervention can stop this one.By the way, I do not consider myself a Conservative if anything I am a slightly left leaning independent but at the moment I see nothing in the Liberals or NDP that would persuade me that we need a change in government.So endeth the lesson, time for a drink! Take care Gary see you in January. Graham. Then came my wife's brother and another golf buddy, Allan Addis: *ain't life interesting!!!!!!!!If these bozzo's could concentrate on the welfare of their constituents instead of messing with each other's heads, the Conservative direction and past performance would still be my preference. However, now that the cow is out of the barn, it will be even more interesting to see if and how these grand standers (Conservatives included) will overcome their self-interests and get back to managing the country in a responsible way. Followed by my Godson, Jamie West - very forceful! Any attempt by the opposition boneheads will result in a swift Conservative majority. Nobody on this continent has time to waste with navel gazing governments. They need thoughtful, insightful and decisive leadership NOW. Harper will reign victorious.That is all from world control. Followed by my old friend and colleague Jim Campanella: All good comments.If I can throw my few cents in...I agree whole heatedly with Simpson's editorial.The big question here is leadership, or should I say, lack of leadership by the Prime Minister. This becomes even more glaring when think of the new leader to our south.Harper called the past election because he blamed the opposition parties for making the parliament dysfunctional. In reality it was a strictly a power move. During the campaigning he had the gall to tell the electorate that the economy was fine. I think he was lucky the Liberals had such a weak leader, or the result would have been dramatically different.Then when Harper failed to get his majority he goes back to parliament and acts as if he did get his majority. The only thing dysfunctional about parliament is Harper. Then came my brother-in law Jim Barnes writing with great feeling from the frozen north: Hi Gary & Friends- I would probably have to think of myself as non partisan, voting usually for individuals that I feel may have the possibility of keeping the Country afloat for my kids and theirs. Having said that I am very confused when I watch interviews...i.e. Jim Flaherty being constantly pressured because he hasn't come up with a major stimulus package, while on the other hand Canada is supposedly in the best shape compared to most of the G7. Either this Government was totally lucky or had some good fiscal policies in place for this to happen. It seems clear to me that they believe it was good management vs. luck and they are trying to stay the course. They obviously want to save their budget commitments until Obama is President before they make their moves. That also seems like a sound strategy, rather than throwing good money after bad strictly in order to calm down the opposition who have their own agenda anyway. Are there any politicians out there who have the interests of the people in mind, or is the entire game strictly to have the power...scary stuff. I with the comments about the auto industry having to change entirely as soon as possible. It is beyond repair and has been for many years. I always keep in mind the cliche that you can sell an old man a young man's car but you can't sell a young man an old man's car...pretty simple stuff, but they never got it. They can probably only sustain two Companies and they would have to be totally devoid of all of the current executives and the unions, but who can make that happen other than a total US Government takeover. Somehow they need to attract some key Japanese and/or Korean executives and build plants from the ground up...buy the assets only and move on. (We have all seen the e-mails about the canoe race between The Americans and the Japanese.) Since the Japanese, Korean and German Companies took over the auto industry many years ago while American executives hid their heads in the sand, is there not a viable way to merge two of the big three with some Japanese or Korean Companies, whereby employment obviously remains North American, while at the same time set it up so most of the profits stay in North America. Surely with the zillions of dollars lawyers take in on an ongoing basis, something can be suggested ,to be put into law, to make this happen. This would obviously slow down the influx of cars from other Countries into North America, solving other problems. We are in a Global world, so ignoring the good producers outside of our respective Countries, is a thing of the past. This, of course doesn't even address the environmental issues that need to be inserted at the same time. I had better sign off, I feel my blood pressure rising. Jim And then came Paul MacDonnell another old friend and colleague: Great e-mail and great recap of the automotive situation. Thanks.Once again it proves that in Canadian politics there are no good alternatives (other than Green, of course). Harper is guilty of trying to exploit the financial crisis to crush his political foes and the opposition once again proves that they don't care about policy or ideology, it's all about gaining power.Does anyone know what the record is for most PM's in a twelve month period? It's got to be in trouble now. Can't wait for my next update. Next was another old work pal of mine, Wayne Moore: Hi Gary,I'm still digesting all of this coalition business, but I just don't thinkthat it's design function fits this situation and it's certainly notproviding what I thought I was voting for. So here is my contribution.I think that Harper should be finding the 12 Liberals and/or NDP'ers who aredisgruntled enough about the Stephan Dion/Layton issue to support theconservatives in a non-confidence vote. Of course I hope that these personswould have the common sense to get in writing Harper's promise to move thegovernment in the correct direction. The flip of this is that this samegroup of Liberals/NDP'ers could preemptively approach Harper with theirsupport under the same conditions. These Lib/NDP people shouldn't worryabout retribution from their party, because they would have a big favor intheir pocket from the Conservatives to offer their own parties at a laterdate.Right now, nothing about this present situation is garnering any positiveresponses, but the above option does offer the chance to calm the turmoiland get the focus back to solving the problem rather than playing king ofthe hill.P.S. This leaves the Bloc out in the cold, and that's a good thing. Wayne And then an old partner of mine who now lives in the country and calls a spade a spade, Ian (the Hun) Smith May Atilla the Hun way in. Has Harper tried to hurt the opposition with the deleting of the subsidy? No doubt. To many it appears mean spirited but to me it would be a stake in in the heart of the Bloc. And why should our tax money be propping up a subversive regime? The Liberals should be able to raise money as the Torys do by appealing to Canadians who beleive or agree with the way they would like to see our country continue.Liberals have often been accused of wanting to divide the loaves and water down the wine as long as they are using someone elses bread and wine. How desparate must they be, to allow the Bloc any place at the governing table of this great country.The constant diatribe by the opposition that Harper has done nothing to stimulate our economy is just not true and as astute followers of these things you all no the facts. Is it or will it be enough who knows at this point. After all this was not a budget. It was an economic statement albeit with a few "nasty nuggets" ( federal pay equity and suspending the right to strike thrown in).Any stimulus thrown at our auto industry or lack of at this point cannot but be acting for the sake of acting.I don't know what is needed at this point and I doubt few others do either. If we are going to bail out the auto people then it must be done in concert with the Americans if not Europe and Asia as well. Even if $3-4 billion were donated to them at this point what would they do with it? Delay the closing of the Oshawa truck plant?When I consider all this I can only conclude that politics at its' worst is alive and well. The Tory's have taken a huge gamble and maybe a costly one. But they have shown us that they are prepared to lead and frequently strong leaders have to do things in ways that seem ruthless.What I think (hope) will happen is this:1. Harper will buy as much time as possible with all legal and constitutional means at his disposal to let public opinion turn agaist the "coalition" They may at least be persuaded to let The Government bring down a spring budget.2. The Coalition will advise the "GG" that Paliament has lost confidence in the ability of the Torys to govern and that the coup should be allowed to.3 Harper will counter that he has not lost the confidence of the people of Canada and that his Government should be given the opportunity to be defeated and an election called. An election is the last thing the Liberals want.4.The "GG" will, I beleive see thru the "HIDDEN AGENDA" yes they can have them to; of the Liberals and allow Harper to muster on.I beleive she will see Dion as nothing more than a week puppet being dangled by the old boys in the Liberal party and the new leadership be it Rae or Iggy. I presume he is a good person caught like a deer in the headlights. How sad that he is now in bed with the Bloc who during the last election campaigne suggested his father's suicide was brought on by Dion's turning his back on the people of Quebec.I beleive she will see Layton as a professional politician as too many of them are, that will stop at nothing in order to get his name in the history books and fatten his pension.I hope she will see Harper as a man of principle who has a plan. It may be the wrong plan and he may not be getting the message out properly but a leader who is prepared to go to the wall for what he beleives. If he fails he will simply leave the cesspool of politics.As is so often said we get the politics we deserve.In the end life goes on. Our taxes go up a little here and down a little there. The economy does better or it does worse. We continue to have poor people and rich people with most of us in between. Arts get funded deserving or not. Too many Canadians don't have a family doctor and all of a sudden nobody is talking about global warming.Merry Christmas to all and to all a good night. Ian And then I heard from my cousin Sharon way out on Vancover Island: Hi Guys,I see you are very political and should be especially in these weird tiimes.We seem to have been more involved in the US election and indeed we could vote in that one too. We loved the outcome! We had a few politicalpotlucks during the initial debates.As for the Can. Election there is really no Liberal candidate here so therewas only one viable candidate to vote for - Catherine Bell-NDP because wewanted anyone but Harper. Unfortunately John Duncan the Conservative pulledoff a win -(Military base is in Comox) I don't have a good grounding in all the issues but I'm sure mad at Harperfor screwing it up with his high handed ways-that's not what the world needsnow and confrontation is not what Canada needs. However this is democracy at work in Canada and yes it can be messy butyou've got to love it. A coalition sounds like a lot of agreeing to me soit will be damn hard to make it work. Isn't there a saner way to go aboutthis? I'm stumped.Hope you and Jill are keeping well, Sharon And then one of my oldest friends on the planet and another country boy to boot, Roy Mandy: Morning Jean-ClaudeIn my wildest dreams I never would have imagined you condoning this Great Country of ours being led by 2 Clowns and a Court Jester. Conspiring to take down the government with a party that wants to see the demise of Canada is nothing less than treason at the highest level. I guess we will be the victims of our own stupidity by putting a separatist in as the GG. With Quebec going to be in charge of the country I might have no recourse than to move to Alaska and be governed by a country girl. Roy And then Ian (the Hun) thought he'd have another kick at the can: Please consider" Of those that voted, and they are the only ones that count, more people voted for Harper and his policy than any other party leader and their policy. No other manipulation of the numbers matters.We cannot let this become a best two out of three. Simple solution: Opposition; "defeat the government and lets vote again".I wonder if they are all so chummy, they being the COUP they might run as a single party. They could call themselves the NIBLOCERALS.See you at the polls. Ian These guys must be operating in the same mind zone cause the next entry is from the other country boy - again, Roy Mandy: Morning Hope your Blog gets off the ground.It occurred to me that with your boy Stephan backing off his critisizim of Harper, Ignatiff not it the picture and Bob Rae leading a cross country charge to promote the coalition , that when he becomes leader the coalition would stay together and get to be called the New Democratic Coalition Party. Rae and Layton may have had this in mind from the get go when Rae joined the Liberals, to work toward the demise of the Liberal Party altogether. If it walks like a duck and talks like a duck it's still a duck no matter what he tries to call himself. ( Bob Rae)Food for thought Roy And a follow-up note from Bud Craig: As if the Conservatives, Liberals, NDP, and the Bloc were not enough bile, my cup runneth over with the news that Elizabeth May is hoping that her buddy Dion will name her to the Senate as soon as he gains power. What a bunch of crap! I will be looking to check off the circle that says “None of the above” on next election day. In order to put the last word on this issue in the proper context I need to insert one more of my notes. Graham had sent us an article from the Ottawa Sun which I felt was fair and balanced so I responded as follows: Hi Graham: I enjoyed Greg Weston's colourful but balanced prose and I couldn't disagree with any of his points - he was equally hard on both sides of this argument. Yesterday at a Christmas gathering of my old high school chums I was (easily) persuaded to address the group from a jury rigged podium on the issue at hand. I have taken quite a beating from this crowd for being a left leaning idealist so it was by no means a partisan audience. What I delivered was a more verbose version of the following letter to the editor which I had just submitted to our local paper. For your critique I offer: (what I sent to Graham was the "other option" proposal attached yesterday's blog entry) Obviously Ian didn't agree and he followed up with this: Well thought out and clearly delivered but wrong.Please stop telling us that Ottawa is in chaos and the sky is falling. The Liberals just can't stomach the thought that they are in opposition with no hope of being in charge in the forseable future. So they have dredged up every trick in the book to discredit the government.A recent poll has shown that traditionaly Canadians vote the party policy 60%; the leader 40% and the local MP 20%. figures rounded. It would appear the Conservatives have the confidence of Canadians. At this point they do not need the confidence of the house. The opposition only expresses their lack of confidence when they feel they can defeat them and win a subsequent election. So please stop the reteric.Every idea, argument, pronouncement etc. coming from the opposition (any non conservative), is based on a simple truth, that being, more people want policy as proposed in the last election campaigne and reiterated in the throne speech than that proposed by any other individual political party.I have lived the vast majority of my 65 years with a Liberal government running this country and have disagreed with the their policy and ideals most of the time. But I sucked it up and kept working toword the day when the political process would reward my party. It has finally happened, albeit in a minority way.The Liberals do not have a divine right to be in charge but the tired old "red machine" rather than roll up their sleeves as the Progressive Conservatives/Reformers/Conservatives did and earn their chance to govern want to worm their way across the isle by whatever means possible.If the Liberals can't possibly sleep at night under Tory policy defeat them in a fair fight. Stop telling me I don't want to go back to the polls when in truth they don't want to.In truth they are the ones not being co-operative. They lost. They are the ones that must take the lead in co-operating, rebuild their party and earn the right to govern. Ian And that just about ended the debate for now but hopefully we can carry this on in the blog format in the New Year signing off for now, AH

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